GREENING GUILFORD

Will our universities be assets or liabilities in a post-peak world?

I was talking with my father one day about the prospects of my committing to live in Greensboro and he remarked that one of city's features that makes it economically viable over the long term is the plethora of colleges and universities. Higher education establishments here should keep state and private monies flowing in, my dad said, and attract businesses because of the city's age- and skill-diverse workforce.

Of course, I regularly hear local and state leaders talk about how vital our colleges and universities are for preparing young people to "compete in a global economy." But some in the educational system worry that the glue that holds globalization together is an achilles heel for higher education: cheap oil. Like other institutions in America, the higher ed system's business plans, physical infrastructure and study areas rely largely on fossil fuels.

I touched on this concern in a peak oil project I completed for the News & Record in June. Gerald Cecil, a physics professor at UNC Chapel Hill, one of the top liberal arts universities in the state, said the school's long term success depends on how it prepares for a decline in oil supplies. He is currently working on an freshman introductory course on the subject.

His concerns are more than reasonable. Higher energy and tuition costs are already creating stress for families and the colleges themselves and driving changes in the educational system, such as an increase in online learning; the late Peter Drucker, a renown management consultant who coined the term "knowledge worker," predicted in 1997 the demise of residential colleges within 30 years (yet public universities in North Carolina, including UNCG, are in the midst of a building boom). The Chronicle of Higher Education featured an article this month encouraging colleges to prepare for peak oil.

Expensive and isolated schools may be at a disadvantage. I attended Campbell University in Buies Creek (a town that had one traffic light when I was there) and students drove 30 minutes or more to Fayetteville and Raleigh for entertainment. Will students do that at $7 a gallon gasoline? Will families spend $20,000 plus a year on tuition and fees in an era of lower job availability?

Public and technical schools such as N.C. A&T (as well as community colleges) may be at an advantage because of their low tuitions and program areas. UNCG, Elon and Guilford College have sustainability programs, but my understanding is that staff are motivated more for environmental reasons than peak oil. My question is, how long will it take before high oil prices contribute to a gradual decline in enrollments rather than an increase? Should colleges continue to rely on government and private loans to fill their seats? Time will tell.  

In the meantime, alternative educational systems are trying to fill in the peak oil educational gaps: I've seen plans for bioregional colleges and "communiversities." Given all of the educational resources in Guilford County, it would make sense for leaders here to retool and adapt early rather than start from scratch when it is too late.

"Peak oil" in the N&R

Starting this Sunday, the News & Record will feature a three-part series I worked on this year about peak oil. I'm encouraging you all to take a look because you will likely hear more about it in the news from now on.

If you want a head start, take a look at this article.

In addition, Peter Kauber of Guilford Solar Communities will do a two-hour presentation on peak oil on July 12. Details:

What:    Guilford Solar July Program: "Peak Oil -- Theory
           and Evidence"
Where:  Kathleen Clay Edwards Family Branch Library,
           1420 Price Park Road
           Greensboro
When:   Saturday, July 12, 10 AM -- 12 Noon
Cost:     Free
Description:  Transportation is the lifeline of our current global and US economies.  Over 95% of our transportation is dependent upon the refined products of oil -- gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and bunker fuel.  As the price of oil sets new records weekly, the question naturally arises: Why is this happening?  One increasingly common explanation is that the rate of production worldwide of cheap, high-quality oil has peaked or will do so in the near future.  This is the "peak oil" hypothesis.  Guilford Solar's July program will explain the meaning of peak oil and will examine the evidence that supports it.  The presenter is Peter Kauber, who has researched the topic over the past four years.  Kauber was employed by Marathon Oil Company during the 1979-1981 "oil crisis" and thus brings a historical and industry perspective to the discussion.

Shell Oil releases report on American energy security

Shell just released a report summing up the dialogue that occurred between company executives and the consumers, community groups and politicians in 50 cities over the past two years. The purpose of the tour was to better educate the public about the challenges the country will face in diversifying its energy portfolio and to find out what was on the minds of the average Sally and Steve.

So what did Shell learn? A few notable points:

Further along the coast, in the Southeast, we found a focus on education. Residents want the public to be more aware of the current energy situation -- and they also emphasized the need to educate elected officials. We found considerable support for increased access to domestic resources and greater refinery output, again balanced by a concern for safety and environmental protection. Clean coal and carbon sequestration were in the mix. We also heard a call for greater fuel efficiency through automotive technology improvements and Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, commonly referred to as CAFE standards. Throughout the state of Florida, residents told us that they did not want, and would fight, new exploration and production off the Florida coast."

Shell stated in its report that while it does not buy the "peak oil" argument (instead believing in a plateau and then general decline of oil supplies), the company is concerned about unrealistic expectations of energy independence from the public:

"What was most frightening? The overwhelming disconnect between the perceptions of many consumers and the hard realities of the energy picture. This is the crux of our dilemma as a country in determining an energy path forward – the belief that there are easy answers that are readily available, when in reality the choices we have to make will not come easily or swiftly."

Obviously there is a disconnect in the political sphere when our Congressmen and women are busy talking about profits from greedy oil companies rather than engaging in a comprehensive public discussion about the changing energy environment we find ourselves in. We need to move from scapegoating to honestly assessing our predicament and devising appropriate strategies for adaptation.

Will Greensboro become a model for relocalization?

Megan Quinn Bachman, outreach director for The Community Solution in Yellow Springs, Ohio, spoke to members of Presbyterian Church of the Covenant tonight in advance of a film showing at UNCG on Thursday about Cuba's loss of access to oil in the 1990s.

She talked to a crowd of about 40 about the need for American towns and cities to radically curtail their energy use and rebuild community connections as preparation for the approaching era of dwindling fossil fuels. That means retrofitting existing homes to save energy, growing more food at home, decreasing the amount of grain-fed meat and processed foods in our diets, using public transportation and creating car-sharing plans in cities where public transportation is not feasible, she said.

"We got into this one bad decision at a time and we will get out of this one good decision at a time," Bachman said about the nation's oil dependency. "We need to recognize that if we don't choose a different path, then the choices will be made for us."

The country will need practical models of low-energy living and community building and the changes will have to come from within the community rather than top down from the government, she said.

"I really think Greensboro is on its way to becoming one of those models," she said.

Greensboro has a long way to go, but the fact that Bachman found her way to the city this week gives me some confidence that the paradigm shift that is coming may soon be at the forefront of people's minds and actions. 

Tips for you peak oil aware

I can probably count you all on two hands here in the great GREENSboro, but perhaps, in time, some of you will be sending me tips.

The following lists are pretty comprehensive -- and overwhelming for the peak oil/green novice. But I find if I take a slow, steady approach and be honest with my resources and time commitment I can realistically work on a few of these each year. Just last year I started gardening and shopping at farmers markets, replaced paper towels with cloth towels, changed my bulbs to compact flourescents and bought two racks to hang dry clothes indoors. Remember, slow and steady.

This list of 100 steps by Sharon Astyk breaks down steps by season. Examples include setting up rainbarrel systems and joining community-supported agriculture. Residents can find resources for doing these two things right in the city. Astyk's remaining 100 steps are here.

Some of these tips are good to do even without peak oil or climate change as a motivating factor. I view them as part of a general lifestyle change to self-sufficiency and simplicity. I also find them quite an experiment in self-education and discovery. So much about our local environment people do not know. And so much knowledge has been lost because of an economy that promotes a complex division of labor and outsourcing of generalist skills that a couple generations ago people took for granted (i.e. food preservation, knitting, herbal medicine, bartering/bargaining).

For example, how many of us know how to treat a cold without running to the local drugstore? While my maternal grandmother didn't frown at over-the-counter medicines, her repertoire of cures included prune juice and castor oil for regularity, honey/lemon and onion tea for coughs, steam for runny noses and cold baths/alcohol rubs for fevers.

And what about bartering/bargaining? That's looked down upon in commercial shopping centers that increasingly rely upon credit (kudos though to the 50% off sale on China-produced sweaters that will unravel before the winter's out). But in some parts, bargaining is an acceptable part of the purchasing process. Bargaining can go a long way in a financially contracting economy, but it does require skill.

Some people may find these skills obsolete but I believe they will regain popularity over time because they are actually more efficient than buying a whole bunch of stuff at the store. For example, honey has many uses so even if I don't use it to treat a cold, I can still eat it. But there have been many occasions when I have purchased a medicine that did not work as advertised, or combined with other chemicals had the potential to cause a negative reaction. Some medicines and antiobiotics, such as penicillin, are a must. But how many types of cold and sinus medicine do we need?  Of course, one of the main reasons we take medicine is not because we can't recover without it, but because we can't let a cold (or menstruation, for the ladies) interfere with our paychecks.

Oil company admits peak oil is near

This week, Shell Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer acknowledges that the world is running out of cheap oil. His prediction of peak production is 2015, less than a decade away.

Where is our peak oil debate?

What I don't mean by "debate" is engaging in a he said/she said argument about whether global peak oil production will occur because it will. It is an actual physical, geological phenomenon; U.S. production peaked in the early 1970s. What I mean is, when will Greensboro and the rest of Guilford County engage in public discourse about how to best adapt to this ominous threat to our society? One can argue whether the outpacing of oil and natural gas supply by demand will lead to an unfaltering rise in prices because economic and geopolitical factors will likely cause the prices to become volatile. That presents its own problems. The trouble with American communities is their utter dependence on these fossil fuels for food, transportation, heating/cooling, electricity and economic growth.

Peak oil primers now abound on the Internet, with some oil analysts believing peak oil arrived in 2005 and others claiming we have a few decades left. Then the peak oil discussion breaks down into a few camps: the doom and gloomers who believe peak oil will kill the global economy and modern civilization, the optimists who believe technology will save the day, and the others in between.

If you want a crash course in peak oil, I would suggest checking out Energy Bulletin, which compiles articles, reports, speaches and other dialogue on peak oil and climate change from across the country on a daily basis. Good reads include U.S. Rep. Roscoe Bartlett from Maryland (recent speech given in November) and the Hirsch Report commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy. Even Matthew Simmons, an oil investor and advisor to the Bush Administration, believes America is in trouble.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) has a different view.

You will need several hours to digest all this. Take your time.

Eventually, however, residents and leaders here will need to address this. How vulnerable is North Carolina and Guilford County? How do we marry the concepts of climate change and peak oil and address them coherently and comprehensively?

The Post Carbon Institute has a list of cities that are already taking a stab at it. You need to scroll down the page to see the list. The population of the cities involved range from about 2,500 to 744,000 people and up, so Greensboro/Guilford County has no excuse.